WesPas NBA Predictions

How to Use the Spread/Total Predictions

Predictions are currently in the beta/testing phase and will be through the rest of the 2021 season so use at your own risk

There is currently no line confidence model, so the predictions are sorted based on the delta between the predicted and actual spread.

Injuries are taken into account on a best effort basis - if players are listed as "out" they will be taken into account in the model predictions.

The players that have been identified as out are listed in the Inactive Player table below the spread/total predictions. If the player is not listed there, the model thinks they are playing. Check before betting.

Spread Predictions

Total Predictions

Yesterday's Performance

Inactive Players

Modeling Methodology

Two models are generated nightly using all available NBA games from 2008 through yesterday's games, one to predict the expected difference in points between two teams, and another to predict the expected total points scored in the game.

Each morning starting at 11:00 AM EST time both total and difference predictions are generated for each available game that day. These predictions are then converted into implied scores, and compared with the current betting lines. Each hour until 8:00 PM EST time this same process refereshes to make any updates based on line changes or injuries

The model itself uses season efficiency statistics for each team, and player-level data for missing players. If a player is explicitly listed as out, that is taken into account based on the amount of minutes that player gets, and how good they are.